Map the Future's Tech Tree
Tech trees are excellent tools for thought even though they are bad models of the world
Both of our careers were profoundly influenced by the technology tree in the 1999 video game Sid Meier’s Alpha Centauri, designed by Bryan Reynolds. If you have no idea what this game is, it is conveniently the subject of one of the great pieces of long-form games criticism: Paean to SMAC by Nick Stipanovich. Here is the poster of that technology tree, which hung on teenage Dan’s bedroom wall; zoom in as far you want.
What stands out about this document is that the base level roughly corresponds to modern technology circa 1999 and the rest of the tree is a thoughtful attempt to imagine multiple layers of additional interdependent technology development (albeit starting from scratch on another planet). Like any good model, it becomes coarser the farther into the future it looks, but Reynolds has clearly made an effort to be opinionated about his predictions at every level. Looking at this from the perspective of 2026 one can see that we’ve moved up the tree somewhat. We have planetary networks, gene splicing, and an increasing amount of industrial automation. We also have seen serious progress and billions of dollars of investment in optical computers, synthetic fossil fuels, fusion power, bio-engineering, orbital spaceflight, and pre-sentient algorithms. Just as interesting are the places where Reynolds predicted early progress that we have failed to make. We have not seen breakthroughs in social psychology or ethics and, despite incredible progress, have not unlocked the human brain.
When Dan was coming of age at the bottom of this poster, the higher levels were an inspiration to bring new technologies into the world. A quarter-century later, low-level boxes that still sound like science fiction serve as a warning to backfill the mental and social technologies we’ve missed but need in order to cope with our other advances.
Building a tree like this, even when it’s not a masterpiece, can have both immediate and enduring value. 2014’s Civilization Beyond Earth is not nearly as well-regarded as Alpha Centauri, but its technology web still makes an interesting case for revisiting the idea of Euthenics (not to be confused with eugenics).
We believe that tech trees are excellent tools for thought even though they are bad models of the world. Make them and take them seriously!
Imagine writing a tech tree for your specific field. The act of writing it will force you to clarify your perspective on your field’s present and future. In the first years after you write it, reading it may help you plan your work and may help junior colleagues direct their careers. As more years go by, you may discover that your field has missed areas that you want to go back to.
Now imagine writing a tech tree for a broader segment of science from your perspective. You’ll soon see your view of your own work’s place in the world and may discover opportunities for collaboration between disparate fields and your own.
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